What could they do to us? They'll be picking no earlier than 7 after the compo shuffle is concluded. You think they'd trade up to make a Walker bid we can't match?

Not much of a theory, just that I thought we may have common cause as the two clubs getting most reamed by the changes. But then the AFL showed a willingness to consider premature aid for their little blip, and I realised we were all alone. If Essendon* (whom I assume to refer to with those criteria) are willing to help with Cody if we help with Bewick, then happy days. How would it work?

The Art of Negotiation achieves the unbelievable. Never say never till it is impossible.
There's a strong argument why Tigers wont pick Walker if we dont have the points to match.
There's reasons we would be working with Effendopes to improve our picks this year and help them for next year, plus other stuff.
Lets put the potential moves of those two teams aside.

Like this year for Walker, last year we needed high picks to match any bid for Dean.
WCE made it public they were taking Dean. Pick 10 and 22 were not going to cut it.
We were forced to negotiate a deal to make this work. Seeing Dean now, a Rising Star, and a Generational KPD he's worth the effort.
The Hawks traded picks 9, 31, 42 and 43 to Carlton in exchange for pick 10 and 22 from the Blues. That wasn't going to cut it.

Last year we traded our best KPF, dual Coleman Medallist to get us 3 first round picks.
Picks 31, 42 and 2027 2nd rounder going to Sydney. We lost our most reliable KPF.
That hole Curnow left is a hole that has plagued us before our current winning streak, and continues to plague us.

This is what some posters said about the Trade period to get Dean, and Walker [this] year.

Dodo27 said


GMChris said


Drewgirl said


Cazzeman said


Blue4ever said


Dodo27 said


braithy said


surrey blues said


killpies said


Last year we ended up needing those 2 first round picks to match WCE's selection of Dean at Pick 3.
That is a lot to pay for an unknown 193cm 18yo, but looking back now, Dean will be a great KPD.
CHB and CHF are the most expensive commodity in the market. We landed a KPD and lost a KPF.

Like Cazzeman and a few posters acknowledged, Carlton Football Club has made a huge sacrifice to have picks to pay for FS's Dean and Walker.
Agree?

Like all of us Surrey Blue was spewing about the cost, and you can't say Walker doesn't know we made a huge sacrifice to guarantee we had the picks for him.

Guess what? We have to make up the points for Walker with 2 x 1st round picks. We have got 2 first picks from trading our best KPF, but with the new AFL rules midway this season, we have been shafted.

What have we got for Walker?

We have our first pick (good chance we make the 10, and lets say we dont win a Final or two) we have pick 9. That gets pushed out (compo for 5 players: Butters, King, Bailey, Neale and Greene) to pick 14. Plus we have Sydney's first round pick. Lets say they are runner up and end up with pick 17, pushed to pick 21 because of the 5 compo picks.

Last year we needed pick 9 and 11 to match for Dean. This year, no way Pick 14 and Pick 21 will get close to Walker at Pick 1, 2 or 3. We need a pick 5 or 6 to get close and another top 10 pick. Now if we dont find them do you really think Walker will think we have abandoned him? And please don't think for a minute walker would be happy to end up at Tigerland. He was being diplomatic when he talked of his fondness of the boys he trained with over there.

Do you think the Tigers or the Bumbers would want a player who was set to play for his dad's team, and the team that he barracked for all his life, and committed to last year, and that was befor he knew we had traded our Charlie Curnow to secure him?

Now do you think its BULL?

He will be back in Blue before the 3 year contract is out if, heaven forbid, we don't draft him. If not, he will be a Bluebagger one day. We wont give up on him.

Well, we are talking about trading up to pick 5 or 6, and its not with the Tigers. Effendopes will call out Cochrane to ensure they and the Tigers and the WCE (who shafted us with Dean last year) will all get their compo. Pick 5 or 6 and a pick in the teens will get us Walker if WCE dare, with a deficit for next year below 415 points. Probably less than 100 points.

Now ifd we can't negotiate a favourable afreement with the Effendopes and tigers, who do you propose we Trade? Weitering? See your post from last year.

_________________
Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

If we finish too high for Cody this year, maybe Essendon* trade their 1st this year for our 1st and 2nd next year?

Seems reasonable.

I can't see us going into the draft without some sort of backup plan like this ready to go. We'd be stupid to assume any club will not pick Cody just to be nice to us.

At the end of the day, he wants to play professional football. He will go where he is picked and clubs will back themselves to convince him to stay. Maybe it will backfire like JHF, maybe it won't.

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The Artist Formerly Known As BamBam7

Maybe he wont is the incentive to find a way to turn the picks below into pick 5 or 6 and a pick in the teens, using 3 firsts and a 2nd? Last uncompromised Draft so we want a few picks for draftees/ Trade. Trading out players would help but pie in sky stuff. Eg. those worth anything uncontracted this year are Ollie Moir Cowan, and next contracts we can trade this year or next year Kemp, Cottrell Motlop.

We need High Draft picks in 2026 for Walker and Draft picks in 2028 for Kouta, Thornton and Togala. I think we will miss out of one of the three in 2028.
Its doable if we Trade all our points and use picks worth zero to pick mature or roughies. Rely on FA's and DFA's (GW specials)
Effendopes need 2027 picks for Bewick (underlined). Other than Pick 1, hey will have a couple more first rounders this year to Trade. Merret would be worth a pick 5 or 6.

I'll look at this for the last time as a reference point till end of season. We have the following points to much around with:

2026 1st Carl (pick 14)
2026 1st Syd (pick 25)

2026 2nd NM (pick 15)
2026 2nd GCS (pick 16)
2026 4th 0 pt
2026 5th 0 pt
2026 6th 0 pt

2027 1st Carl (pick 25)

Need these for 2028:

2027 1st Syd ( pick 32)
2027 1st Carl (pick 35)
2027 2nd Carl (pick 53)
2027 3rd Carl (pick 70)
2027 4th 0 pt
2027 5th 0 pt
2027 6th 0 pt

Need the following for Kouta Thornton Togala
2028 1st (pick 35)
2028 2nd (pick 55)
2028 3rd (pick 75)
2028 4th 0 pt
2028 5th 0 pt
2028 6th 0 pt

I'll leave the details to Crusader and others who have the knack for creativity.

Its doable. and we are not trading:
Weitering, McKay, Cripps, Walsh, Smith, Cerra, Cowan, Dean, O'Farrell, Ainsworth, Hayward, Carroll, Wilson, Riley or Ison.

_________________
Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

My guess for the draft order, after free agency, but before the end of the trade period.

The trades required to get the RFA deals across the line will most likely be done simultaneously. Otherwise some club, probably the one leaning too heavily on chatbots will be at risk of getting left behind holding their dicks.

1. Scum
2. Richmond
3. West Coast
4. Port
5. Port (Band 1 FA Compo - Butters to Doggies)
6. Carlton
7. Norf
8. Aints
9. Filth
10. GWS
11. Dees
12. Doggies
13. Dees (via Gold Coast)
14. Gold Coast (Band 1 FA Compo - King to Aints)
15. Adelaide
16. Carlton (via Sydney)
17. Hawthorn
18. Geelong
19. Brisbane
20. Brisbane (Band 1 FA Compo - Bailey to Adelaide)
21. Freo
22. GWS (Band 2 FA Compo - Greene to Filth)
23. Doggies (Band 2 FA Compo - Khamis to Carlton)
24. Brisbane (Band 2 FA Compo - Neale to Filth)
25. Scum (Bid Compo)
26. Richmond (Bid Compo)
27. West Coast (Bid Compo)
28. Port (Bid Compo)
29. Scum
30. Richmond
31. West Coast
32. Port
33. Port (via Carlton)
34. Carlton (via Norf)
35. Hawks (via Aints)
36. Filth
37. Hawks (via GWS)
38. GWS (via Dees)
39. Doggies
40. Carlton (via Gold Coast)
41. Adelaide
42. Sydney
43. Brisbane (via Hawks)
44. Geelong
45. Brisbane
46. Freo

- Port, Dees, Dogs & Blues to work out a trade to get the FA bids for Sparrow, Butters & Khamis across the line… think we move Weitering here. Port will match the offer for Butters if the Dogs can’t come up with a trade.
- Butts to stay
- Bailey Williams to stay
- Amartey to stay
- Lynch to stay or retire
- Nank to stay
- Impey, Lewis & Gunston to stay
- Briggs to stay

The rest aren’t Band 1 or 2 candidates.

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"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter" - Winston Churchill.

Bondi. Very well thought out post.

I am confident that we are in good hands with GW and CD. Yes we need to work with teams to get it done.

I just trust other teams, but one would think the Essenscum should work with us and we can do a deal of some sort.

I am just burnt from our past decisions thats all. Hopefully a lot of talk with said clubs is happening as we speak.

We’ll get Walker and so we should, but the question will be what cost?
The AFL, sorry ugly head, has screwed us but we aren’t leaving talent on the table for others.

If we didn't have the points to match then I think Richmond would more likely bid on Cochrane to get their freebee 2nd rounder and then take Van Hattum based on their current list balance. I doubt Essendon* would put a pick #1 bid on a player that doesn't want to be there and has questionable foot skills.
Of course this is all assuming we don't have the points to match which is an unlikely scenario.

_________________
'The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule it'
H.L. Mencken

Well said Humpers. Its dependent on scenario how the opposition act. There's a case for doing your best to have ample points to match, but not sell the farm.

_________________
Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

I knew you'd have a well thought table with reasonable assumptions.

Its great to see you have taken a punt on your ladder prediction. That's primary.
Thanks for tabling band 1 and 2 compo picks.

Here's what it means for us and Walker.

Assumption Ladder

1. Freo win Flag
2. Bris runner up
3. Geel
4. Haw

5. Sydney
6. Adel
7. GCS
8. WB
9. Melb
10. GWS

11. Coll
12. StK
13. NM

14. Carlton Triggers 10% discount
15. PM
16. WCE
17. Rich
18. Eff

Pick 6 and 16 and up to 412 carry over points towards a 2027 1st round pick

Numbers from internet https://www.zerohanger.com/afl/afl-draft-order-2026/
I hope this is correct. Correct me if you have to.

pick 1 3000 or 2700 with 10% discount applied
pick 2 2481 or 2232
pick 3 2178 or 1960 Expected Walker
pick 4 1962 or 1765
pick 5 1795 or 1615
pick 6 1659 or 1493

pick 15 973
pick 16 924
pick 17 879
pick 18 836

Walker 1960 (incl 10% discount)

pick 6 1659
pick 16 924
Total 1953 carry 7 points (must hold 2027 1st Rnd pick)
In fact you could cover him if pick 2

Please correct me if Ive got this wrong.

You'd be (literally) pushing out Weitering for 2 first Rnd Picks to snag us a KPF plus .
Dogs wont have any firsts spare with Butters. Where from based on your table?

Can see your reasoning:

FB Dean
CHB O'Farrell
INTERCEPT Khamis
DEPTH Haynes, Young Derksen

If we end up 13th Walker costs an extra 300 points, plus less points in pocket....that's a story discussed above re Drewgirl's post.

_________________
Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

On the above scenario couldn't we just trade out Sydney's first rounder for a future first and use the 2nd rounder we got from North to make up the shortfall?

Yes.Easily.

Walker Pick 3 1960

Pick 6 =1659
Pick 34 = 542 (NM 2nd Rnd pick)

Total 2201

241 carry over points against 2027 1st Rnd pick. We have 2x 2027 picks.

Under scenario Crusader presents it would be a waste to turn Sydney 2026 1st Rnd into a future 2027 1st round pick in the compromised draft, but handy to have in 2028 to use for Kouta Thornton and Togala if they warrant such a cost.

Does your Ladder Predictor predict Carton 14th, NM 13th and Sydney 5th when Finals finish?
Sydney a big chance to play 2 Home Finals.

_________________
Everyone looks good in Navy Blue

I do have swans 5th. I also think they'll go out in straight sets. Also got roos 13th but have us finishing 12th.

don't know why everyone is assuming we finish 14th on the ladder. unless the coaches are ordered to do some tanking with plausible deniability. the players wont be happy if we tanked, all the senior players are sick of losing. I watched Walker play in the Coburg game it's pretty incredible to think we'd be giving up two top 10 picks and another first rounder for him, but I'm no talent scout, I'm happy to admit i wouldn't have a clue. he is speedy and tough as, playing against men as if he's one of them.

I think Swans will go deeper in finals than 5th too.

Oh so we're trading out Weitering, Cripps (C) and MacKay are we… good luck with that!

OK. So, firstly, I want to do away with any talk of a deficit. I know it’s there, but I want to trade those two picks out this year.

I believe both teams will be looking at themselves as top six contenders. We didn’t sack the coach to go backwards, so I think it’s reasonable to return to 2023-early 24 areas… so, 2x pick 20-25 before makey uppy.

The other thing to consider is that the geniuses at HQ haven’t said whether the Tassie picks that must be traded will have any points value. They may be in short supply. The only certainty is that, whatever the situation, they will make it worse.

Point is, I’m wanting to trade both picks right now & that can only be done at full face value.

Per the above:

Port: 4, 5, 32, 33
Blues: 6, 16, 34, 40
Dees: 11, 13
Doggies: 12, 23, 39

One of Walker & Cochrane is going first. No one is missing out on the freebie. If we can engineer the situation where it’s Dougie, then our picks become #4 & 15. Port’s remainder would slot in to #14.

Cody would have to go #2. Clear the decks & improve the value of the later picks. There are other bids to be matched. El Souki (Dogs), Matthews (GWS), Murray (Brisbane) for starters.

Port now holds #13, the Dees picks become #8 & 10, with the Doggies’ selections coming in to #9 & 20. Our remaining points from the Cody bid become pick #23 which, I believe, is the 2nd last selection in the first round - ahead of the anti-Carlton compensation picks.

If I’m the Doggies, I would be thinking that three additional picks in the first round of next year’s draft would be a half way decent inticement for Port to not match a bid on Butters. All they have to do is trade #9 to Carlton. Let’s do #23 and the 2x 2027 picks for that #9 pick. The Doggies can then find a Veale on the Port list to get the picks to where they need to be.

I did think that Weitering to Footscray was on, but they’re deep into Butts (tee hee)… anyway, you’re right about their lack of capital if English stays. Perhaps it was an exercise like this one that put his name into the rumour mill. If they do manage to entice Butts out of Radelaide, I would expect it to be a Band 2 offer, so an extra pick at the end of R1.

I would happily take one of those two picks from the Dees, plus their 2027 and 2028 firsts. The big fella could probably do with some financial advice… though he’d probably end up sinking it into a paper stadium like Pendles…

So, we get our man, we get some extra chip & dip for future years, and we’re still sitting on a pair of top 10 picks. If it were me, I’d draft Herbert & LeCras, then wipe my dick on Dillo’s tablecloth & go home.

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"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter" - Winston Churchill.

We aren't finishing 14th.

10th or bust

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No Guts, No Glory

I missed the first 5 minutes of the VFL game vs GWS
Moir played well in the first quarter playing BP.
The team faded after that, and the defenders faced an onslaught from lack of defense from mids.
He's played backline for last 3 weeks in the VFL: CHB, HB and BP.
He's been training with the backline.

Got me thinking.
I always thought Cowan was the heir apparent from Newman.
When he returned from a disrupted preseason he wasn't his attacking self. Pedestrian.
He was given tagging roles on Jeremy Cameron and saints' star Nasiah W-M.
That got him moving, and his confidence is through the roof.
Attacking, despite having to closely mind Toby Greene.
He's playing a different role to Newman.

We know Moir is a work in progress and can do the spectacular as a marking forward.
Maybe Moir is being groomed to take over Newman's role in 2027, and Newman becomes depth.

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Everyone looks good in Navy Blue