Dominator7 wrote:
Had 15 min at work, so analysed 2004 to 2007.
(I snipped the detail - AIRCAV)
.
Based on Dominator’s post, I’ve redone my stats analysis of the AFL draft, with an analysis of our performance since 2004.
As per the listings above, it doesn’t make great reading.
I did my analysis in games played by draft picks, then compared it to other clubs.. That analysis shows that since 2004,
Round Picks Avg Games Rank
1 9 53 8
2 7 0 14
3 9 41 8
4 4 32 14
5 5 58 6
6 6 69 6
7 1 25 6
We have been consistently outperformed and are lucky to be ‘average’. To compare our actual performance to other clubs, you can see the detailed stats here
http://affl.net.au/nd-carl-v-oth-detail.htmlOur performance, especially with 2nd round draft picks has been atrocious.
A comparison of our draft history can be seen here, along with what the AFL Game average for that round of draft picks. Lots of red numbers!
http://affl.net.au/nd-sels.htmlThe thing is I started this analysis as I didn’t think our drafting was that bad and I wanted to show it’s not an exact science. However, the deeper you look, the more problems you see.
If someone has been in place since 2004, the raw numbers show that their strategy, whatever it is, is sadly lacking.
National Draft
Overall, our trading is average. We’ve done ok, fairly much just on the AFL average. What the figures do show though is our propensity to trade away 2nd and 3rd round draft picks.
As detailed in the following pages, Rounds 1-3 is where the bulk of AFL players are found and trading out of these picks puts us behind the 8 ball.
For example, since 1999, we have had 30 picks in rd 1-3, ranked 15th / 16, just in front of Sydney (and of course excluding GWS and GCS). By contrast, Geelong have had 51 and with players in the first 3 rds playing on average 50 AFL games, we are a massive
1000 games behind Geelong.
Early draft picks are simply too precious to trade and we should stop trading them away
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