dannyboy wrote:
except if it happens time and time and time again, then it is an issue because of an underlying issue.
If Dogs (to use your example) experienced 5 (or more) run on of goals in almost every game I doubt they would have played in the GF - but I am happy to be proved wrong. How many run-ons did Melbourne and Dogs experience compared to Carlton in 2021? The same, less or more?
Its literally a scoring trend but the closer to the top of the ladder you finish, the less frequently it occurs (as typified by the spread of teams on the ladder). Why? the more games you win, the less likely you conceded 5 goals or more in a row.
It's not really any different to scoring 2 then copping 8, or copping 3, scoring 1, copping another 3, scoring 1 again, and then copping another 2.
It might make people feel better or worse about things, but the alarming part of the 5 goal run ons, is more to do with momentum swings.
There were multiple times, that this played out, even though we executed a forward press, and didnt hit the scoreboard which meant when we didnt have the momentum we conceded, but when we did, we failed to score. To make the statistic go away (read the grand final) its more important to score when you have the momentum. Scoring when you dont can sometimes be attributed to scoring efficiency.
It literally happens in matches all the time.
If you wanted to point to a statistic, I would say the one that shows the inside 50 count is way more useful to analyse, because it shows the variance between momentum swings better. teams that have momentum wont convert all the time, but they will enter forward 50. Likewise, teams conceding momentum often will see many inside 50's against, which will tell a much better story of what is occurring in game.
Scoring is scoring. Ive seen teams win, by scoring efficiently, and their opposition failing to hit the scoreboard, and that doesnt make the win any better or worse, because all that has to change is scoring efficiency and the result changes. THATS why the 5 goal run ons are in varying degrees, useless. Its not even a statistic if you saw it play out in every final you watched, and the only tight final I saw where this didnt occur to at least one finalist, was the GWS vs Sydney match.