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First game I'll be at for a few months...looking forward to a cracker. Our record against the Hawks of late is ordinary at best - they've well and truly owned us for a fair while now. One of the main reasons for owning us (aside from the fact that for a long time there we were rubbish..) has been their more experienced and hardened bodies intimidating our younger side. It happened as recently as last year when they started the season poorly then re-ignited their year by trouncing us in our home game. With more experience into the players and hardness to the ball improved this year, I'm inclined to think that we can match it with them from line to line.
Their midfield is an interesting one. For mine they look slow at times when Rioli is thrown forward. Sewell, Lewis, and Mitchell are not the quickest trio around. We've got it over their midfield in spades...pace being one of them. We can really hurt them offensively if we can get first use of the ball. I'm expecting Sewell to play a lock-down role on Juddy, so we need someone to dish it right back - Robinson. He is not afraid to get in and amongst it, any mongrel the Hawks want to dish out can be returned by Robbo, without doubt. Simpson and Murphy will expose their lack of pace, and Judd will be himself as usual.
This is where the game will be won and lost. We may be down a couple of important defenders as it is...therefore the midfield really need to be on top of their game. Limit their supply going forward and we stop Buddy from exploding with his bags of goals. They are down one damaging player in Roughead - he has given us nightmares in the past few seasons. I'm inclined to put Thornton on Franklin based on experience and the season he's had. Henderson is simply too young and too raw to go with Buddy on Friday night - it would be nice for Lachie to use it as a learning curve, however, a game as important as this should not be mucked around with as such.
The Hawks will be looking for a bit of x-factor up the field and in the middle also, and there are so many possibilities as to who will take who. As we've seen several times this year, Franklin has been moved up the field to provide them with a bit of spark. Do we have a match-up for him if he is afforded this role? Thornton should not go with him if he is allowed this freedom. Kreuzer seems the likely type. Can match it with Buddy athletically, and as we've seen, he is fantastic in and under at ground level. If Buddy is moved up the field and Kreuz can shut him out of the game, that leaves the Hawks one midfielder down and one forward down.
Henderson going forward should be a possbility I think. Thornton should play in the backline after spending a bit of time forward apparently in the last few games, which gives Hendo the all-clear. Hawthorn love it when the opposition bomb it to small targets. Walker is a medium forward and can bring the ball to ground, but we need a tall down there to be certain. He does not have to take towering grabs (it would be nice though..) but provide a presence which allows the ball to be crumbed by our small forward-line. The Hawks think they can worry us with Rioli...well we have three players of the similar capabilities - Betts, Garlett, and Yarran.
The latter will be a game-breaker for us in my opinion. Yarran has been brilliant running us off half-back all year, and we could be in for a match-up between him and Rioli. Cyril has often been allowed big impacts in games throughout the year because his opponent has often been unable to go tit-for-tat with him on pace. Yarran at the very worst breaks even with Rioli in this respect. It would be an interesting match-up should it happen, and Yazz can limit his influence with his polish and speed to match.
This is without a doubt our best opportunity in a long time to knock off Hawthorn. We owe them for several hidings over the last few years, including the 100-point smashing in 2007, the 12 goal belting in 2008 and disallowing Fev a 100th goal, "that" game in 2009 where they didn't win it, we lost it, and last year's debacle. We are down a few players, but it will still give us an indication as to where the side are at coming into the finals.
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Premierships: 1869, 1871, 1873, 1874, 1875, 1877, 1887, 1906, 1907, 1908, 1914, 1915, 1938, 1945, 1947, 1968, 1970, 1972, 1979, 1981, 1982, 1987, 1995.
"GIBBS."
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