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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 6:16 pm 
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Bruce Comben

Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 10:31 pm
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Sydney Blue wrote:
Bluey44 wrote:
Craig_Bradley wrote:
My old man was in a pessimistic mood like a lot on here, writing off our top four chances after our third loss of the year. He was looking over the fixtures for the Coasters and the Hawks, basically saying they'll win 7-8 each and we'll get stuck in Perth in week two of the finals ... if we even make it that far.

So - a little perspective.
The top four over the past four years have looked like this in terms of points:
2010 - 70, 68, 62, 56
2009 - 80, 72, 60, 60
2008 - 84, 68, 62, 52
2007 - 72, 60, 60, 56

Moral of the story is - with 9.5 wins already on the board and 9 games to go - we need 5 wins to push past the 14 wins barrier and, if recent history is worth anything at all, we'll finish top four. We need 5 out of 9. It's not a huge ask.

Plus, we have five games against bottom eight teams to go - Tigers, Dogs, Bombers (feels good!), Roos and Saints. Plus winnable games against the Hawks and the Dees. So whilst injuries and fatigue are a bit of a concern, it's still so much ours to lose. In fact, if we drop any of those games, it will be well and truly our fault.

Just trying to make those glasses look half-full, after a rough 24 hrs.
A win against the Tigers this week and we'll be back in the groove!


Post of the week.

Seriously



No it is not as this year with the addition of the GC you have that extra easy beat if you look at the ladder as it stands now Hawthorn play 7 games against the bottom 4 sides and WC play 6 - we only play 4

so the two teams we are fighting for in the top 4 effectively have been given a 8 point and 12 point head start and the competition is not as strong and you can also say that WC play the 5th Bottom side twice in the bulldogs

Our double games are against Coll - Ess - Rich Melb- Stk -Syd - all teams that are vying for a spot in the 8

60 - points may get you top four but I would say it will be most likely 62 or 64 to be sure


Whether the Hawks and the Eagles have an easier draw than us is really beside the point as I see it. As far back as 2002, no side with more than 56 points has missed the top four. We win 5 more, we have 58. Not saying it's a mathematical impossibility, just saying it's highly unlikely - we're still on a 22-game season so I can't see how the GC issue affects things that much. Fingers crossed we do notch up a few more wins though so we're not faced with having to lock up fourth in the final round against the Saints!


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 6:23 pm 
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Ken Hunter

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tommi wrote:
EVERYBODY NOWWWW...........









Image........!


KINDEST REGARDS TOMMI






OOOOOPS..............!


sorry...........!


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 6:24 pm 
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Craig Bradley
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Ah, gotta love the emotive "MAKE FIVE OR SIX CHANGES, IT SHOWS WE MEAN BUSINESS!" that come out after a loss (even sometimes after a win?). Shows a distinct inability to remove emotion from rationale.

Ask yourself this - before you even think about the actual changes - are a team more or less likely to win, having changed a quarter of the personnel from the week before? Just doesn't work.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 7:05 pm 
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Harry Vallence

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In: Waite, Robinson
Out: Jamo, (one of) Ellard/Army/O'Keefe


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 7:08 pm 
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Bob Chitty

Joined: Wed Mar 16, 2005 10:10 am
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Stamos wrote:
In: Waite, Robinson
Out: Jamo, (one of) Ellard/Army/O'Keefe


Agree with this......the Ins are a given Have a feeling it might be Ellard. The kid rarely misses in front of goal though!


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 7:12 pm 
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Harry Vallence

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Blue Sombrero wrote:

This game, like most of our good wins, will be won in the front half. Warnock has to get a few hitouts to advantage and we have to win the clearances against a pretty handy midfield.
And has to start taking some marks around the ground. Couldn`t believe how easily he was pushed out of the contest on Sunday. For some reason i think the MCG will suit him a lot better.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 7:14 pm 
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Bruce Doull
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The Rhino wrote:
Ah, gotta love the emotive "MAKE FIVE OR SIX CHANGES, IT SHOWS WE MEAN BUSINESS!" that come out after a loss (even sometimes after a win?). Shows a distinct inability to remove emotion from rationale.

Ask yourself this - before you even think about the actual changes - are a team more or less likely to win, having changed a quarter of the personnel from the week before? Just doesn't work.


You might wanna ask the Cats about that :wink: .

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 7:17 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko

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Princes Park Whistler wrote:
Blue Sombrero wrote:

This game, like most of our good wins, will be won in the front half. Warnock has to get a few hitouts to advantage and we have to win the clearances against a pretty handy midfield.
And has to start taking some marks around the ground. Couldn`t believe how easily he was pushed out of the contest on Sunday. For some reason i think the MCG will suit him a lot better.


I've been saying it for a long while now. Warnock is not strong enough to hold his ground.
Regardless what you think of Hammer (even before he hit form) he could hold his ground, make up ground to contest and spread to make an option. Hammers 2nd and 3rd efforts are worth consiodering in a favourable light despite the lack of possessions.

Warnock got pushed out quite easily by a Claremont kid in the Foxtel Cup.

He doesn't get any shorter, but FFS can the MC read him the riot act just to get a bee in his bonnet and start seeing some aggression...otherwise bring on the more competitive Setanta.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 7:49 pm 
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Geoff Southby
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bondiblue wrote:
He doesn't get any shorter, but FFS can the MC read him the riot act just to get a bee in his bonnet and start seeing some aggression...otherwise bring on the more competitive Setanta.


Still hasnt learned from the time Leigh Brown humiliated him last year...

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 7:57 pm 
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Rod Ashman
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The Rhino wrote:
Ah, gotta love the emotive "MAKE FIVE OR SIX CHANGES, IT SHOWS WE MEAN BUSINESS!" that come out after a loss (even sometimes after a win?). Shows a distinct inability to remove emotion from rationale.

Ask yourself this - before you even think about the actual changes - are a team more or less likely to win, having changed a quarter of the personnel from the week before? Just doesn't work.


The only reason it's 5 or 6 is due to the 3 or 4 forced changes last week. Robinson, Curnow, Duigan all regulars of the team and forced to miss. You probably want those guys straight back in. Also missing Waite, Laidler and let's be honest Irish Mk I was going alright until he hurt himself.

So there's your 5 or 6. If all were available for selection this week, you'd say ALL with a question over Setanta would go straight back in the team. Am I wrong?


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 7:57 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko
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The Rhino wrote:
Ah, gotta love the emotive "MAKE FIVE OR SIX CHANGES, IT SHOWS WE MEAN BUSINESS!" that come out after a loss (even sometimes after a win?). Shows a distinct inability to remove emotion from rationale.

Ask yourself this - did I fire six shots or only five?

EFA. :thumbsup:

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 8:21 pm 
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Geoff Southby

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Can't drop Austin after one game back after 2 years out with injury. Give him a chance to pick up the pace of the game. Otherwise drop him from the list now.

Duigan is an automatic inclusion if fit. Ellard is not an automatic inclusion and does not deserve to retain his spot, similar with Armfield.

In other words don't panic after one loss. Duigan for Jamison. Robinson for Ellard. Curnow for Armfield. The only unlucky player is O'keefe to make way for Waite.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 8:29 pm 
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Harry Vallence
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Teddy Hopkins wrote:
Can't drop Austin after one game back after 2 years out with injury. Give him a chance to pick up the pace of the game. Otherwise drop him from the list now.

Duigan is an automatic inclusion if fit. Ellard is not an automatic inclusion and does not deserve to retain his spot, similar with Armfield.

In other words don't panic after one loss. Duigan for Jamison. Robinson for Ellard. Curnow for Armfield. The only unlucky player is O'keefe to make way for Waite.


Austin has been on the list for 5 long years now and has had plenty of opportunities to prove his credentials. You mentioned in another thread that he was our number 1 defender against West Coast, well 8 possessions and 2 marks is not what i expect from our number one key defender.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 8:52 pm 
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Robert Walls
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Hotcox wrote:
Teddy Hopkins wrote:
Can't drop Austin after one game back after 2 years out with injury. Give him a chance to pick up the pace of the game. Otherwise drop him from the list now.

Duigan is an automatic inclusion if fit. Ellard is not an automatic inclusion and does not deserve to retain his spot, similar with Armfield.

In other words don't panic after one loss. Duigan for Jamison. Robinson for Ellard. Curnow for Armfield. The only unlucky player is O'keefe to make way for Waite.


Austin has been on the list for 5 long years now and has had plenty of opportunities to prove his credentials. You mentioned in another thread that he was our number 1 defender against West Coast, well 8 possessions and 2 marks is not what i expect from our number one key defender.


Broken Record - you are as boring as bat doo doo Hotty.

Get another bitch to whinge about.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 9:03 pm 
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Garry Crane

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Ellard looks tired.....Army looks confused and Carrots looks like he is done.

Hoops, Austin and Touhy are on their last chance....the stakes are really that high.

Remember....NO PASSENGERS!!

Special mention to Warrnok to harden up.....never seen someone so big and so soft.

Talking of soft Henderson only gets another go this week because Jammo is down and we need someone big down back, but his efforts to date have been - SOFT!!! Cannot understand the clowns on this forum who continually bag the big Irishman and accept the crap that Hendo has handed out in his efforts to date.

The minute Duigan, Robinson, Hammer, Laidler, Setanta, Curnow, Jammo and Waite are ready they should be rushed into the side and I really don't care who makes way for them.

This is a bit of a rant I know, but names have to be named if only for my own sanity.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 9:35 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan
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Hotcox wrote:
Teddy Hopkins wrote:
Can't drop Austin after one game back after 2 years out with injury. Give him a chance to pick up the pace of the game. Otherwise drop him from the list now.

Duigan is an automatic inclusion if fit. Ellard is not an automatic inclusion and does not deserve to retain his spot, similar with Armfield.

In other words don't panic after one loss. Duigan for Jamison. Robinson for Ellard. Curnow for Armfield. The only unlucky player is O'keefe to make way for Waite.


Austin has been on the list for 5 long years now and has had plenty of opportunities to prove his credentials. You mentioned in another thread that he was our number 1 defender against West Coast, well 8 possessions and 2 marks is not what i expect from our number one key defender.


I agree. Nothing less than 32 possessions (15 contested), 11 clearances, and 8 tackles is acceptable from a key defender.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 9:38 pm 
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Harry Vallence
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10 disposals and 5 marks (2-3 contested) is a pass mark.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 9:41 pm 
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Robert Walls
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Hotcox wrote:
10 disposals and 5 marks (2-3 contested) is a pass mark.


So if Austin plays on Reivoldt - doesn't get a kick or take a mark but effects 15 spoils, lays 8 tackles and keeps Jack to zero goals by your definition he has failed.

:screwy:

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 9:49 pm 
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Harry Vallence
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bluebo baggers wrote:
Hotcox wrote:
10 disposals and 5 marks (2-3 contested) is a pass mark.


So if Austin plays on Reivoldt - doesn't get a kick or take a mark but effects 15 spoils, lays 8 tackles and keeps Jack to zero goals by your definition he has failed.

:screwy:


20 years ago that would have been a great performance but in todays modern game every player on the ground needs to contribute in the zoning of space and pushing up to create the forward press. This means the FB is playing much higher up the ground for longer periods. If a player was to contribute 0 0 0 then that is not good enough.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 9:51 pm 
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Bruce Comben
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Warnock needs to toughen up and provide some presence. At the moment he is about as intimidating as Deluca used to be. Last chance for him before he makes way for Irish. Still worried about the backline without Jamo. i remember round one when Reiwoldt kicked 6 and I see no match up for him again.


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