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hi guys, you may remember me from round 8. I wrote a match preview for the game. Here is this weeks edition.
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Crunch time folks. There’s no where to hide, no where to run. The eyes of 70 thousand fans at the MCG and millions more at home watching the TV will be on Collingwood and Carlton this Friday night. Though the rivalry between these 2 clubs has always been grand…there is no doubt that this game has more riding on it that any other that I can remember for quite some time.
Collingwood currently sits in 4th spot, and Carlton in 7th. However, a win to Carlton could potentially put them up into the 4th spot on the ladder considering their percentage is better than the 3 sides above them. Either way, if Carlton win, they will go above Collingwood on the ladder. Though a win to Collingwood would see them 2 games clear of Carlton and seemingly would bring the race for 4th spot down to 3 sides.
The formline of these 2 clubs has been interesting. Though Collingwood won 7 games in a row, the loss to the Hawks last week was disappointing to say the least. Carlton on the other hand is coming off the back of 3 straight wins…albeit to 3 lowly ranked teams. However, their win to Sydney last week was impressive considering they have a terrible record against the Swans, yet were able to slam on 9 goals in the last quarter . Carlton would see this as a chance to take a bigger scalp and completely cement their position in the finals race.
And the Blues has every reason to be confident. They have beaten Collingwood on the last 3 occasions they have played. The most recent meeting in round 8 saw the Blues run away with a resounding 51 point victory despite Fevola been held goalless. Fev kicked 15 goals in the 2 games these sides played in 2008.
Collingwood have the excuse that they were terribly undermanned in round 8. Friday night provides no such excuse. Both sides will be able to pick very strong teams, and Collingwood will consider this a huge opportunity to put their bogey side to rest and hold onto 4th spot. The Pies did not deal with the Hawks (another bogey side) well at all last week, so the challenge on Friday night will define how good the 09 Magpies are and whether they are genuinely a top 4 contender.
The Round 8 Match
As I said, Collingwood was severely undermanned. However, despite never looking like threatening Carlton’s dominance in the match, Malthouse amazingly declared post-match that “We were never out of it until the last 5 minutes”. An amazing call considering Carlton kicked 5 goals to 0 in the first quarter, and the Pies only managed 1 goal in the first half.
After a tough opening quarter from the Blues, the Pies did manage to stem the flow a bit in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but were never dangerous in attack. Perhaps Malthouse was referring to the fact that Collingwood had more inside 50’s than the Blues. But if you look at other statistics, Carlton dominated possession, had more tackles and double the amount of marks. To me it was a dominant performance, with Judd racking up 32 disposals and Eddie Betts sneaking away from O’Brien to kick 4 goals. Waite was also dominant with 3 goals starting the game forward.
Collingwood were short in attack. They were missing Cloke, Medhurst, Fraser, Didak and Thomas…whilst Swan was suffering from a bad knee and Leon Davis was hampered by an abdominal strain which saw him miss the week prior. But the damage was well and truly done in the midfield where Carlton ran rampant. All their major ball winners won plenty of the ball and they were also dominant in the ruck against Cameron Wood.
No doubt Carlton draw a lot of confidence from this match. It is hard to see how Collingwood is going to turn around 51 points, especially considering Fevola was a non-factor. But 8 rounds is a long time in football and Collingwood is much better placed now to match the Blues through the middle.
At the Selection Table
Both sides are likely to make changes this week. However both sides are carrying a few minor injury concerns.
Carlton will be monitoring the fitness of Jamison who was a late withdrawal from the Sydney game last week with an adductor injury. Jamison always plays well against Collingwood, usually getting the matchup on Medhurst. Setanta O’Hailpin will also come into contention for selection this week. The big Irishman was starting to repay the faith shown in him by the Blues with some breakout games up forward. Unfortunately a few Fevola knees to the hip have sidelined him. No doubt the Blues will look seek to bring him in to really stretch the Pies up forward.
Others who will come into contention is out of favour midfielder Nick Stevens who has been banished to the VFL and Andrew Walker who is on the comeback trail from his terribly run of shoulder injuries.
I don’t think Carlton will mess too much with a team that has won 3 win a row, however I do predict 2 changes provided these players recover from injury.
In: O’Hailpin, Jamison
Out: Bentley, Hartlett.
Hartlett was the replacement last week for Jamison and was beaten by White, playing at Full Back. Considering Collingwood have injury concerns surrounding Prestigiacomo and Nathan Brown, this lineup would stretch the Pies with Fevola, Fisher, O’Hailpin and Hampson up forward.
As I said, Collingwood’s 2 main injury concerns surround Presti and Nathan Brown who both sustained injuries last week. Presti has reportedly fough through the last few weeks with rib injuries, whilst Brown was able to play on from his hyperextended knee but will be tested for this weeks game.
The availability of Josh Fraser will also be sweated upon. The absence of Fraser is proving to be Collingwood’s Achilles heel considering Wood and Leigh Brown are not setting the world on fire as suitable backup ruckmen.
Leigh Brown’s form continues to divide Collingwood supporters. His aggression is good, but his skills are not. At 193cm he is hardly a desirable ruck option. However, given Carlton’s potential to go tall up forward, he could present a worthwhile option down back this week. I think Collingwood will be extremely keen to get Presti onto the park this week considering how dangerous Fevola looks.
In: Goldsack, Fraser, Reid
Out: Leigh Brown, Wellingham, Nathan Brown
That would leave 2 ruckmen in Wood and Fraser, and we will finally get a look at Ben Reid at CHB. I do think it is time we test both Fraser and Wood as combination and stop playing Leigh Brown as a pinch-hitter. The side down back however looks a bit skinny, so I hope Nathan Brown pulls up ok. Chris Dawes will also come into contention. His form at VFL level has been very good and he was only able to play 55% gametime last week because he was an emergency for the senior side. There seems a need to bring in a 3rd tall forward, however finding a player to drop becomes difficult.
Matchups & Strategy
Carlton have really played Collingwood to perfection in the last 3 encounters. They have dropped a lot of numbers back, and really generated a lot of run from defence. The pace and skill of the young Carlton players has exploited Collingwood’s lack of pace through the middle.
Collingwood in turn has tried everything to stop Fevola. It has often meant trying to drop loose men into defence to cover him. It has never worked because it has allowed the Blues too many loose men through the centre. They own the corridor and move the ball far too quickly to cover Fev. The zone from Hawthorn last week proved Collingwood is still susceptible to this strategy, so no doubt Carlton will have taken a bit from that.
I think the answer for Collingwood is man on man. Obviously stopping the run in a manner similar to the Doggies and Essendon* games in needed. Judd is going to get the ball 30 times, so putting pressure on his disposal is vital.
Carlton forward line:
A really hard week to do matchups for Collingwood down back considering I am not aware of the state of Presti and Brown. I will go in assuming Presti is in and Brown is out.
Fevola v Presti – Presti hold him goalless in round 8, however Fev was suffering from his foot injury and was far from fit. His last 3 weeks have been very good and he is back to the top of the Coleman medal race. Presti is coming off a beating at the hands of Franklin, and is also suffering from a number of injuries including ribs and shoulder and groin. If his pace is down then he will struggle against Fev who always enjoys playing the pies.
Betts v Toovey – Collingwood would normally use Harry O’Brien here, however Harry was beaten in round 8 and the Pies may need to use him on a tall. Toovey lowered his colours against Hawthorn and reverted back to his poor kicking form. Betts is very dangerous, and Toovey needs a solid game after what has proven a very successful year fro him.
Shaw v Carrazzo – Heath is back into some of his best forms, and teams will start defensive tagging him again. Carrazzo is rarely playing his usual high possession game anymore…instead reverting to a defensive forward role. I think he’ll be given the responsibility to stop Shaw’s run out of defence. If Collingwood get bottled up against half back they go very wide and generally struggle to score. Shaw is the key in providing dash of half back.
Fisher v Harry O’Brien – Fisher was a big reason why the Blues got ontop of the Swans in the 2nd half last week. He kicked 3 goals, and really lifted in the 3rd quarter. He is an important player for the Blues as he is a high lead up forward flanker with strong hands. Plays his best footy when the attention is on Fev and he gets a poor matchup. I think Harry is more suited to this type of player than an Eddie Betts type or a Brendon Fevola type. Harry is out-muscled by Fev but has the speed to keep up with a guy like Fisher. Though Fisher is strong one on one, Fisher is not as physically intimidating as Fev, so Harry is more suited.
Reid v O’Hailpin – There will be questions as to whether any of these guys play. Perhaps the final makeup of these sides will depend on a late change depending on the availability of these 2. I’d much prefer Nathan Brown in this matchup as O’Hailpin is far too strong. But if Reid comes in, it will be to play CHB so he’ll have to go with Setanta. Reid played on Miller last week and was good. I still have my fingers crossed Nathan Brown will be ok. Even if O’Hailpin does not play, then Brown will be needed to cover Hampson or Kreuzer who spend a lot of time forward.
Yarran v Johnson – Yarran was OK against Sydney last week and should hold his spot. Ben Johnson will be needed to play a tight checking role on him, then hopefully expose Yarran for a lack of fitness and accountability going the other way.
Midfield
Carlton will feel their strength is in the midfield. However, the past 2 months have highlighted the fact that Collingwood now has a very dangerous midfield. Generally, the Magpies simply don’t matchup well against the Blues…so I’m anticipating a lot of head to head battles. The Magpies will probably also look to bring a lot of numbers to the stoppages to try and bottle the Carlton run up. At their best, Carlton are a strong onball unit that can be very effective in the clearances. Collingwood is also highly dependent on stoppages. It will be an intriguing matchup.
I’d love to see Collingwood tag Judd and Murphy, but simply put, they do not have the resources to do it. So the matchup’s will be head to head.
Judd v O’Bree – The 2 most important clearance players for these clubs. I’d personally like to see Wellingham thrown the lifeline, but I don’t think he has done enough to earn his spot after a quiet game against Hawthorn. O’Bree will most likely be asked to take Judd around the stoppages, whilst many others will rotate through him during the course of the game. Judd had 32 disposals last time these sides met so he clearly is the difference between these sides.
Murphy v Beams – Wouldn’t mind seeing young Beams been given a run-with job on Murphy who is playing excellent footy at the moment. Murphy’s pace may be an issue and he has a bigger frame…but Beams is also in good nick, picking up 25 disposals last week. Beams is dangerous around the stoppages because his hands are so clean. He has also kicked 2 goals for 2 weeks running now so he is a danger. Murphy’s height is obviously not an issue, so it would be a fantastic test for Beams who is quickly establishing himself in the Magpie midfield.
Pendblebury v Grigg – Pendlebury is slowly returning to his best footy after his knee injury, but still looks a bit hampered.
Didak v Gibbs – Gibbs spent some time tagging Goodes last week and also spent plenty of time on the ball. Didak was kept very quiet last week against Hawthorn and the absence of his class through the middle was telling. Joseph may also get this job, but I think he will go to Davis. Gibbs will look to nullify Didak and also make him accountable. If this matchup happens, you can pencil in Gibbs for 30 disposals, but Didak may be able to sneak forward for a few goals.
Swan v Russell – Though Carlton’s midfield has more star quality in its top 5, Collingwood would consider the depth of their midfield with the huge amount of rotations as their strength. Carlton may elect to tag Swan, though I think their greater focus will go onto Davis and Didak. Swan may therefore get attention from Russell.
Davis v Joseph – Aaron Joseph continues to get the big tagging jobs. Leon Davis has been slightly down on his usual output of late so will be looking to get back to his best on the big stage on Friday night. Davis is generally a big game player, and the Magpies need him at his best to make top 4. Joseph is the best matched for pace to play on Davis. He will either go to him or Didak.
Thomas v Houlihan – Houlihan is a highly skilled player, so it will be essential that he is checked. Otherwise Fevola will be the beneficiary of his precision kicking. Houlihan’s form has been patchy after a good start to the year. Thomas’ form has also been patchy, although to me he is getting a bit better every week. Though I doubt this matchup will occur, no doubt both players are that extra bit of class in their teams. Thomas is battling for his best form, which hopefully returns to him before finals. Against Carlton on the big stage is a huge opportunity for Thomas.
Collingwood Forward Line:
Cloke v Bower - Bower has really taken the big step this year and established himself as a very good defender. Will most likely get Cloke as he matches him for speed and versatility. Bower is also quite one on one, but no doubt Cloke will try and use his strength to out-mark him. Held O’Loughlin to 1 goal last week. Cloke needs to start kicking goals. He has not kicked a goal in the last 2 weeks and this is simply not good enough for a guy considered to be the number 1 forward in the team. I know Cloke plays high and is responsible for a lot of assists, but he needs to start atleast kicking 2 a game to make himself a genuinely great Centre Half Forward. His pressure has been good however.
Anthony v Thornton – Jack has been out of nick. His kicking has abandoned him and he is no doubt suffering from a sore hip. Perhaps the vigours of his first full season of AFL football are catching up with him. That said, he was better against Hawthorn in the last quarter where he kicked 2 goals…so he will look to carry that form into this weeks game.
Jamison v Medhurst – I’d say both are likely to play this week, though Medhurst has been terribly out of form and Jamison will be tested. Generally, Jamison has had the better of this matchup, though Medhurst has had some great games against the Blues. Considering Anthony and Cloke are down on goal-kicking form, getting Medhurst back to his 2-3 goal a game average is crucial. If he can, the forward line goes back to looking incredibly dangerous.
Scotland v Lockyer – Lockyer was good against Hawthorn and kicked 3 goals. I think Lockyer will be responsible for sitting on Carlton’s loose man across half back and looking to exploit him. This player may well be Scotland. However Scotland was very quiet in his return game last week…though he usually lifts for Collingwood games. When Lockyer is kicking goals and putting forward pressure, the Pies look very dangerous.
Dick v Anderson – Anderson may be asked to get this role as he is good defensively and Dick is a decent overhead mark. Dick was out of form against Hawthorn but will be needed for a few crumbing goals on Friday night. His defensive pressure has to also return. Collingwood need to stop Carlton’s run out of defence.
Ruck
Collingwood will be sweating on the availability of Fraser. A matchup between he and Kreuzer is something I have been looking forward to because both were number 1 draft picks…but Kreuzer is perhaps the modern day prototype ruckman.
The other guy is Shaun Hampson who really established himself as a player against Collingwood in Round 8. Hampson will spend time up forward to stretch the Collingwood defence.
The next 4 games
Collingwood: Carlton, Brisbane, Adelaide, Richmond
Carlton: Collingwood, North Melbourne, Geelong, Port Adelaide
So as you can see, a tricky month ahead for both clubs. Collingwood plays all 3 teams competing for the 4th spot they currently hold onto. Carlton have the chance to dislodge Collingwood then face the undermanned Kangaroos, but then face a Geelong side that will be looking to return to full strength before the finals series. An away game against Port Adelaide will also be tricky.
The Wrap Up
It will be a chilly night, but the blood will be boiling at the G on Friday night. With both sides in good nick, a big crowd will turn up as they always do when these 2 meet. The forecast is only for a top of 15 with some reasonably strong winds, but no rain is forecast. But it will be icy.
How will Collingwood bounce back from their horrible loss to Hawthorn? Is Carlton’s dominance over Collingwood here to stay?
I fear that if Collingwood cannot beat Carlton on Friday night, Magpie fans may have to brace for a tough 5 years against the Blues who will continue to get stronger. Collingwood has to prove to its fans and itself that they can beat the Blues. They have to shake off a bogey side, and they have to keep winning to make top 4.
It is top 4 or nothing for Collingwood this year. Carlton on the other hand must make the finals. But it is only a game inside at the moment. This is Carlton’s best chance to cement themselves in and shoot for a top 4 finish.
Now, ever since the Collingwood loss to Carlton in Round 8, I have tipped against Collingwood every time. And it has worked, with Collingwood winning the next 7 matches. However that superstition came unhinged last week against Hawthorn.
In my defence though, Joffa did come on Nicks Bulletin Board and declare Collingwood would win by 60…and we all know that whenever he does this it means a smashing is heading our way. So hopefully this week there are no Joffa predictions to unhinge my fine tipping trend…and I will tip the Blues by 15 points in an absolute corker of a game.
By David Natoli
aka DaVe86
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