Five games to go now and the landscape has changed since I first posted this topic.
Still comparing our run home with the sides that we are competing against but the group has grown bigger with Essendon* and Richmond both playing good footy and given their draws could be well in the mix
So using a similar points system with a few adjustments
Still assume that the top 4 are set in stone and Hawks, WB, Swans and Cats have a difficulty ranking of 3 points.
The next Eight teams are vying for finals spots and all around the same level, so Adelaide, Brisbane, Collingwood, St Kilda, North Melbourne, Essendon*, Richmond and Carlton have a difficulty rating of 2 points
The bottom four teams WCE, Freo, Port and Melb have a difficulty ranking of 1 point.
So the run home for the middle eight teams (in current ladder order) looks like this.
North Melb - plav against Brisbane 2pts, Bulldogs 3pts, Carlton 2pts, Geelong 3pts, Port 1pt -
Total Difficulty 11 points -
Could be a tough few weeks for the Roos
Collingwood - play against Hawks 3pts, St Kilda 2pts, Power 2pts, Sydney 2pts, Freo 1pt -
Total Difficulty 10 points
should be safe
Adelaide - play against Carlton 2pts, Rich 2pts, Ess, 2pts, St Kilda 2pts, Bulldogs 3pts-
Total Difficulty 11 points -
When the draw came out last year the Crows probably pencilled in 5 wins against teams in the 2007 bottom 8. - On current form Adelaide could lose all 5
Brisbane - play against North 2pts, Hawks 3pts, Dogs 3pts, Carlton 2pts, Sydney 3pts
Total Difficulty 13 points
Toughest run of all the contenders - play 3 top 4 sides but 3 games in Qld one in Sydney and 1 in Tassie may be a leveller
St Kilda - Play against Port 1pt, Collingwood 2pts, Freo 1 pt, Crows 1pt, Essendon* 2pts
Total Difficulty 8 points
No top 4 teams and technically the easiest run of finalists but can't afford to do what they did on the weekend and drop a gimme game. Couldn't happen to a nicer team. Unfortunately should make it
Richmond - Play Geelong 3pts, Adel 2pts, Hawks 3pts, Freo 1pt, Demons 1pt
Total Difficulty - 10 points
Would expect the Tigers to win 3 games which may be just enough, but at this stage probably looking a solid 9th
Carlton - Plays against Adelaide 2pts, Port 1pt, Kangaroos 2pts, Lions, 2pts, Hawks 3 pts
Total Difficulty 10 points
Our comparative degree of difficulty has dropped significantly. On yesterdays form could beat anyone and romp it in. All I can say is that the opportunity is there for us to take. 4 wins will definitely see us through but 3 may do the trick depending on other results.
Essendon* - Plays against Melbourne 1pt, WCE 1pt, Adelaide 2pts, Bulldogs 3pts, St kilda 2pts
Total Difficulty 9points.
Could be a dream run for Essendon* as all those games could be winnable if they keep up their form. Their biggest problem is that if they drop just one game then it is all over.
Ranked by degree of difficulty
St Kilda 8
Essendon* 9
Carlton 10
Collingwood 10
Richmond 10
North Melbourne 11
Adelaide 11
Brisbane 13
darknavy's predicted ladder after r 22
1 Geelong
2 W Bulldogs
3 Hawthorn
4 Sydney
5 St Kilda
6 Collingwood
7 Nth Melb
8 Carlton
9 Richmond
10 Adelaide
11 Bris Lions
12 Essendon*
13 Port Adel
14 Fremantle
15 West Coast
16 Melbourne
_________________ Ecclesiastes 1:4, "One generation passes away, and another generation comes: but The Blues abide forever."
|