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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:12 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick
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Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 6:36 am
Posts: 4209
Scotty12000 wrote:
keogh wrote:
The Marchbank Tuohy trade doesn’t look too good now with Pickett leaving
Smedts gone
Pickett gone
Went down in the draft order
Losing a player of Tuohy’s experience in defence
Despite all the injuries it was clear given his lack condition when
he came back from the wrist injury that He just wasn’t committed

Tuohy was one foot out the door, we did what we could. Forgetting the speculative steak knives, effectively we traded an international rookie we developed into one of our best back 6 and which cost us nothing (and at 29 probably only has a couple of years of footy left) for a 22 year old former Pick 6 in Marchbank that will now be in our best back 6, fits the age profile and has a lot of years left in him. I'll take that.

The Tuohy trade involved us also giving our future second round
pick to Geelong in exchange for pick 63, Smedts and Geelong’s future first round

We then traded Geelong’s future first rounder plus picks 45 and 58 to obtain
Marchbank, Pickett and GWS future second round pick

We then traded that future pickfor picks 48,66 and 70
With those 4 extra late picks we secured
Polson
Williamson
MacCreddie
Kerr

Of those 4 only Williamson has shown something in 2 and half years
Unless Marchbank turns out to be a gun it doesn’t look fantastic
And Tuohy was offered @#$%&! all to stay with us

I do get what SOS was trying to do but the fact is this trade highlights his inability
to find some gold with late picks plus misses with some of the previous
AFL rejects


Last edited by keogh on Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:14 pm 
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Rod Ashman

Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2007 1:54 pm
Posts: 2096
Humpers wrote:
AGRO wrote:
We’ve been reamed on all trades with GWS - despite the ways the resident sugar coaters have wanted to spin it.

-We got reamed with Jaksch however SOS was working with GWS then.
-Marchbank trade good for us - don't care about losing Tuohy.
-Pick #30 for Plowman and Phillips worthwhile.
-Setterfield will be a player and I'm happy that his body appears to be holding up OK.
-I agree Kennedy trade isn't looking good however we only gave up pick #28.



wasn't it menzel for pick 28 and kerridge then pick 28 for plowman, philips, sumner and lamb? then a swap of first rounders - the future first we got from Geelong for Henderson for GWS pick 8.
pick 8 turned into Mckay. sounds like a real reaming that one.

BTW how are henderson and menzel going? #reaming

also, marchbank could be an all aus defender if he stays healthy (knock on wood)


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 Post subject: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:24 pm 
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formerly King Kenny
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Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 8:35 pm
Posts: 18696
keogh wrote:
Scotty12000 wrote:
keogh wrote:
The Marchbank Tuohy trade doesn’t look too good now with Pickett leaving
Smedts gone
Pickett gone
Went down in the draft order
Losing a player of Tuohy’s experience in defence
Despite all the injuries it was clear given his lack condition when
he came back from the wrist injury that He just wasn’t committed

Tuohy was one foot out the door, we did what we could. Forgetting the speculative steak knives, effectively we traded an international rookie we developed into one of our best back 6 and which cost us nothing (and at 29 probably only has a couple of years of footy left) for a 22 year old former Pick 6 in Marchbank that will now be in our best back 6, fits the age profile and has a lot of years left in him. I'll take that.

The Tuohy trade involved us also giving our future second round
pick to Geelong in exchange for pick 63, Smedts and Geelong’s future first round

We then traded Geelong’s future first rounder plus picks 45 and 58 to obtain
Marchbank, Pickett and GWS future second round pick

We then traded that future pickfor picks 48,66 and 70
With those 4 extra late picks we secured
Polson
Williamson
MacCreddie
Kerr

Of those 4 only Williamson has shown something in 2 and half years
Unless Marchbank turns out to be a gun it doesn’t look fantastic
And Tuohy was offered @#$%&! all to stay with us

I do get what SOS was trying to do but the fact is this trade highlights his inability
to find some gold with late picks plus misses with some of the previous
AFL rejects


What did Geelong end up with? Tuohy and ?

I don’t know the answer by the way.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:54 pm 
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Harry Vallence

Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 4:30 pm
Posts: 1411
Location: How blue do you do
We've dished out a few trade reamings of our own lately. You can't win them all. Swings and roundabouts.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:05 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick
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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:49 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan
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Joined: Fri Feb 09, 2007 10:56 am
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Location: Progreso, Yucatan, MEXICO
Getting back to this year...
We need a ruckman desperately.
Kreuzer is playing well but the backup stocks aren't flash.
I had hopes for Phillips but he has turned out just OK.
Lobbe is the past.
TDK is the future but we need more than just him.
If only someone had listened when I wanted Witts.....

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 Post subject: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:53 am 
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Harry Vallence

Joined: Fri Dec 15, 2006 8:22 am
Posts: 1224
Agree a good ruckman is our most urgent need.
I’m even cooling on the idea of going hard for an established gun mid eg Coniglio.
I’m starting to think we’d be better off getting a moneyball player like the Hawks model from 10yrs ago... Burgoyne, Gunston etc... (Yes Burgoyne is a star but at the time he wasn’t thought to have long left and went for a reasonable price rather than the godfather offer we’d need to get Coniglio).
?


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:54 am 
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Harry Vallence

Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2006 4:52 pm
Posts: 1614
Should raid Richmond.

Bolton, Ellis maybe Soldo will help us out. Then add someone like Ed Langdon from Freo for that genuine wing position.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:22 pm 
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Robert Walls

Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 7:24 pm
Posts: 3870
Location: Bridge, Starship Enterprise
Nick wrote:
Should raid Richmond.

Bolton, Ellis maybe Soldo will help us out. Then add someone like Ed Langdon from Freo for that genuine wing position.


Like Langdon from Freo. Sandy boy, pace, 24 next year, 70-80 games, fits the mold.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:51 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan
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Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 2:09 pm
Posts: 15245
17th Premiership wrote:
Agree a good ruckman is our most urgent need.
I’m even cooling on the idea of going hard for an established gun mid eg Coniglio.
I’m starting to think we’d be better off getting a moneyball player like the Hawks model from 10yrs ago... Burgoyne, Gunston etc... (Yes Burgoyne is a star but at the time he wasn’t thought to have long left and went for a reasonable price rather than the godfather offer we’d need to get Coniglio).


In early 2015, SOS and Trigg met with John Deeble - known as a bit of a coaching/scouting doyen in baseball circles. John is now the Asia-Pacific Director of scouting for the LA Dodgers, but for 15 years was Asia-Pacific talent scout for the Boston Red Sox. More importantly - Deeble and Brett Ward, an Aussie also with the Red Sox, invented the Aphex Software for List Management. They were trying to capitalize on the 'Moneyball' craze which was being taken so far out of context from what it originally was that it is now more a myth that anything else. But at a local level, Aphex started to gain some momentum - and that momentum coincided with Stephen Silvagni's arrival at Carlton.

Aphex was a similar model to the one Adelaide had used a few years earlier. Stephen Trigg was well aware of it. The Crows had used their own model to prioritize their interest in Eddie Betts (18 months before he left). Deeble launched the Aphex website at the end of 2013 and pitched it directly at the AFL industry. He already had David King speak to the analytics without actually mentioning Aphex by name at the end of 2013 and by January 2014, Callum Twomey had written an article for the AFL website about Aphex as the 'new moneyball'. https://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-01-24/the-new-moneyball

In late 2014, SOS's contract comes with his own stipulations. Similar stipulations that he had in 2006*

In September 2006 - Pagan convinced SOS to come on board as a senior assistant. SOS agreed, on the proviso that he can control various elements of the football department. Bruce Mathieson told the board this was a good compromise and a good idea. Then a 3 day circus of indecisive board meetings and football reviews followed. The board agreed to sack Pagan. Barry Mitchell presented to the Board for the senior coaching position before the Board back-flipped on its decision to sack Pagan and reinstated him for a further 2 years. Mitchell stayed as an assistant. Silvagni doesn't have a job. He accepts a coaching offer from then new St.Kilda coach Ross Lyon. 

So - pre-season 2015. SOS is back at Carlton. He has the board wrapped around his finger. He has complete carte-blanche over list management. He's got sign off on using Aphex but he decides he wants to tinker with it. Trigg tells SOS to be mindful that the software is to give them a better understanding of trading - something they know they'll have to do if they're to rebuild in the coming years. SOS wants to use the analytics for drafting. The favorite son wins out. No one goes against SOS. It's a battle at board level that can't be won. LoGiudice has signed off on it. Adrian Gleeson and Craig Mathieson back SOS in. The club is compromised.

It doesn't go as planned. SOS is so invested in his own version of Aphex, that he overlooks fully understanding the new points system and has instead created a convoluted list management tool. Trigg was right. Aphex is designed as a very simplistic tool to analyse and target players already in the system. The goal of "Moneyball" (and Aphex) is simply to identify value that other teams might be overlooking. Michael Agresta joins as List Manager for the 2018 season. That's SOS's exit strategy right there - and at seasons end, he should use it.

Do we need a GM List Manager & Strategy when we have a competent List Manager and the Strategy is somewhat flawed?

The whole list rebuild 'going too young' has been known for a while. Cain Liddle has made mention of his understanding of Carlton's position while he was still at Richmond. He's being polite. Strange things are afoot at the Circle K. Something's brewing. I can feel it in me bones. Someone should book Festival Hall. Only three things are certain - LoGiudice won't fall on his sword, SOS is stubborn and Chris Judd is still trying to figure it all out.

Can't wait for the next AGM!


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:56 pm 
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Ken Hunter

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
Posts: 11670
Location: Bondi Beach
Teddy Hopkins wrote:
Nick wrote:
Should raid Richmond.

Bolton, Ellis maybe Soldo will help us out. Then add someone like Ed Langdon from Freo for that genuine wing position.


Like Langdon from Freo. Sandy boy, pace, 24 next year, 70-80 games, fits the mold.


Langdon would bolster our midfield. He's coming on just fine. Hard at it and has pace. If only we could get him....is he out of contract?

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:07 pm 
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Ken Hunter

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
Posts: 11670
Location: Bondi Beach
Blue Sombrero wrote:
Getting back to this year...
We need a ruckman desperately.
Kreuzer is playing well but the backup stocks aren't flash.
I had hopes for Phillips but he has turned out just OK.
Lobbe is the past.
TDK is the future but we need more than just him.
If only someone had listened when I wanted Witts.....


I did.

Now I'm happy if we throw $1M at Grundy.

A good tap man who brings his mids into the game.

Kreuzer imo is like a ruck rover without the clean possessions who nullifies the opposition ruck (at times) and then follows up his own ball.

Kreuzer is the best we've got and so important to us. That doesn't make him a great ruckman though.

My take on ruckmen

Great ruckmen Gawn, Grundy, NicNat, Sandilands, McEvoy, Goldstein, Ryder, Jacobs ...
Very Good ruckmen Witts, Mumford, Preuss, Nankervis, Sinclair, Lycett ...
Good ruckmen Kreuzer, Stefan, Bellchambers, Stanley, Smith ...
Below average Philips, Lobbe, Hickey, Clark,

We are in desperate need for a ruckman imo.
There's no back up for Kreuzer.
I wish Kreuzer was our back up TBH.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:13 pm 
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Ken Hunter

Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:03 am
Posts: 11670
Location: Bondi Beach
DocSherrin III wrote:
17th Premiership wrote:
Agree a good ruckman is our most urgent need.
I’m even cooling on the idea of going hard for an established gun mid eg Coniglio.
I’m starting to think we’d be better off getting a moneyball player like the Hawks model from 10yrs ago... Burgoyne, Gunston etc... (Yes Burgoyne is a star but at the time he wasn’t thought to have long left and went for a reasonable price rather than the godfather offer we’d need to get Coniglio).


In early 2015, SOS and Trigg met with John Deeble - known as a bit of a coaching/scouting doyen in baseball circles. John is now the Asia-Pacific Director of scouting for the LA Dodgers, but for 15 years was Asia-Pacific talent scout for the Boston Red Sox. More importantly - Deeble and Brett Ward, an Aussie also with the Red Sox, invented the Aphex Software for List Management. They were trying to capitalize on the 'Moneyball' craze which was being taken so far out of context from what it originally was that it is now more a myth that anything else. But at a local level, Aphex started to gain some momentum - and that momentum coincided with Stephen Silvagni's arrival at Carlton.

Aphex was a similar model to the one Adelaide had used a few years earlier. Stephen Trigg was well aware of it. The Crows had used their own model to prioritize their interest in Eddie Betts (18 months before he left). Deeble launched the Aphex website at the end of 2013 and pitched it directly at the AFL industry. He already had David King speak to the analytics without actually mentioning Aphex by name at the end of 2013 and by January 2014, Callum Twomey had written an article for the AFL website about Aphex as the 'new moneyball'. https://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-01-24/the-new-moneyball

In late 2014, SOS's contract comes with his own stipulations. Similar stipulations that he had in 2006*

In September 2006 - Pagan convinced SOS to come on board as a senior assistant. SOS agreed, on the proviso that he can control various elements of the football department. Bruce Mathieson told the board this was a good compromise and a good idea. Then a 3 day circus of indecisive board meetings and football reviews followed. The board agreed to sack Pagan. Barry Mitchell presented to the Board for the senior coaching position before the Board back-flipped on its decision to sack Pagan and reinstated him for a further 2 years. Mitchell stayed as an assistant. Silvagni doesn't have a job. He accepts a coaching offer from then new St.Kilda coach Ross Lyon. 

So - pre-season 2015. SOS is back at Carlton. He has the board wrapped around his finger. He has complete carte-blanche over list management. He's got sign off on using Aphex but he decides he wants to tinker with it. Trigg tells SOS to be mindful that the software is to give them a better understanding of trading - something they know they'll have to do if they're to rebuild in the coming years. SOS wants to use the analytics for drafting. The favorite son wins out. No one goes against SOS. It's a battle at board level that can't be won. LoGiudice has signed off on it. Adrian Gleeson and Craig Mathieson back SOS in. The club is compromised.

It doesn't go as planned. SOS is so invested in his own version of Aphex, that he overlooks fully understanding the new points system and has instead created a convoluted list management tool. Trigg was right. Aphex is designed as a very simplistic tool to analyse and target players already in the system. The goal of "Moneyball" (and Aphex) is simply to identify value that other teams might be overlooking. Michael Agresta joins as List Manager for the 2018 season. That's SOS's exit strategy right there - and at seasons end, he should use it.

Do we need a GM List Manager & Strategy when we have a competent List Manager and the Strategy is somewhat flawed?

The whole list rebuild 'going too young' has been known for a while. Cain Liddle has made mention of his understanding of Carlton's position while he was still at Richmond. He's being polite. Strange things are afoot at the Circle K. Something's brewing. I can feel it in me bones. Someone should book Festival Hall. Only three things are certain - LoGiudice won't fall on his sword, SOS is stubborn and Chris Judd is still trying to figure it all out.

Can't wait for the next AGM!


Fantastic insight. Thanks :thumbsup:

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:23 pm 
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Mike Fitzpatrick
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Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 6:36 am
Posts: 4209
DocSherrin III wrote:
17th Premiership wrote:
Agree a good ruckman is our most urgent need.
I’m even cooling on the idea of going hard for an established gun mid eg Coniglio.
I’m starting to think we’d be better off getting a moneyball player like the Hawks model from 10yrs ago... Burgoyne, Gunston etc... (Yes Burgoyne is a star but at the time he wasn’t thought to have long left and went for a reasonable price rather than the godfather offer we’d need to get Coniglio).


In early 2015, SOS and Trigg met with John Deeble - known as a bit of a coaching/scouting doyen in baseball circles. John is now the Asia-Pacific Director of scouting for the LA Dodgers, but for 15 years was Asia-Pacific talent scout for the Boston Red Sox. More importantly - Deeble and Brett Ward, an Aussie also with the Red Sox, invented the Aphex Software for List Management. They were trying to capitalize on the 'Moneyball' craze which was being taken so far out of context from what it originally was that it is now more a myth that anything else. But at a local level, Aphex started to gain some momentum - and that momentum coincided with Stephen Silvagni's arrival at Carlton.

Aphex was a similar model to the one Adelaide had used a few years earlier. Stephen Trigg was well aware of it. The Crows had used their own model to prioritize their interest in Eddie Betts (18 months before he left). Deeble launched the Aphex website at the end of 2013 and pitched it directly at the AFL industry. He already had David King speak to the analytics without actually mentioning Aphex by name at the end of 2013 and by January 2014, Callum Twomey had written an article for the AFL website about Aphex as the 'new moneyball'. https://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-01-24/the-new-moneyball

In late 2014, SOS's contract comes with his own stipulations. Similar stipulations that he had in 2006*

In September 2006 - Pagan convinced SOS to come on board as a senior assistant. SOS agreed, on the proviso that he can control various elements of the football department. Bruce Mathieson told the board this was a good compromise and a good idea. Then a 3 day circus of indecisive board meetings and football reviews followed. The board agreed to sack Pagan. Barry Mitchell presented to the Board for the senior coaching position before the Board back-flipped on its decision to sack Pagan and reinstated him for a further 2 years. Mitchell stayed as an assistant. Silvagni doesn't have a job. He accepts a coaching offer from then new St.Kilda coach Ross Lyon. 

So - pre-season 2015. SOS is back at Carlton. He has the board wrapped around his finger. He has complete carte-blanche over list management. He's got sign off on using Aphex but he decides he wants to tinker with it. Trigg tells SOS to be mindful that the software is to give them a better understanding of trading - something they know they'll have to do if they're to rebuild in the coming years. SOS wants to use the analytics for drafting. The favorite son wins out. No one goes against SOS. It's a battle at board level that can't be won. LoGiudice has signed off on it. Adrian Gleeson and Craig Mathieson back SOS in. The club is compromised.

It doesn't go as planned. SOS is so invested in his own version of Aphex, that he overlooks fully understanding the new points system and has instead created a convoluted list management tool. Trigg was right. Aphex is designed as a very simplistic tool to analyse and target players already in the system. The goal of "Moneyball" (and Aphex) is simply to identify value that other teams might be overlooking. Michael Agresta joins as List Manager for the 2018 season. That's SOS's exit strategy right there - and at seasons end, he should use it.

Do we need a GM List Manager & Strategy when we have a competent List Manager and the Strategy is somewhat flawed?

The whole list rebuild 'going too young' has been known for a while. Cain Liddle has made mention of his understanding of Carlton's position while he was still at Richmond. He's being polite. Strange things are afoot at the Circle K. Something's brewing. I can feel it in me bones. Someone should book Festival Hall. Only three things are certain - LoGiudice won't fall on his sword, SOS is stubborn and Chris Judd is still trying to figure it all out.

Can't wait for the next AGM!


Talk about how to complicate things any further
The fish rots from the head
Silvagni is stubborn and as a list manager punching above his weight
It’s the favorite son syndrome mark 2 after Sticks stellar performance off field

The club is so thick at the top if all this is true


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:17 pm 
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Robert Walls
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Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 5:18 pm
Posts: 3394
Location: East Perth, WA
DocSherrin III wrote:
17th Premiership wrote:
Agree a good ruckman is our most urgent need.
I’m even cooling on the idea of going hard for an established gun mid eg Coniglio.
I’m starting to think we’d be better off getting a moneyball player like the Hawks model from 10yrs ago... Burgoyne, Gunston etc... (Yes Burgoyne is a star but at the time he wasn’t thought to have long left and went for a reasonable price rather than the godfather offer we’d need to get Coniglio).


In early 2015, SOS and Trigg met with John Deeble - known as a bit of a coaching/scouting doyen in baseball circles. John is now the Asia-Pacific Director of scouting for the LA Dodgers, but for 15 years was Asia-Pacific talent scout for the Boston Red Sox. More importantly - Deeble and Brett Ward, an Aussie also with the Red Sox, invented the Aphex Software for List Management. They were trying to capitalize on the 'Moneyball' craze which was being taken so far out of context from what it originally was that it is now more a myth that anything else. But at a local level, Aphex started to gain some momentum - and that momentum coincided with Stephen Silvagni's arrival at Carlton.

Aphex was a similar model to the one Adelaide had used a few years earlier. Stephen Trigg was well aware of it. The Crows had used their own model to prioritize their interest in Eddie Betts (18 months before he left). Deeble launched the Aphex website at the end of 2013 and pitched it directly at the AFL industry. He already had David King speak to the analytics without actually mentioning Aphex by name at the end of 2013 and by January 2014, Callum Twomey had written an article for the AFL website about Aphex as the 'new moneyball'. https://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-01-24/the-new-moneyball

In late 2014, SOS's contract comes with his own stipulations. Similar stipulations that he had in 2006*

In September 2006 - Pagan convinced SOS to come on board as a senior assistant. SOS agreed, on the proviso that he can control various elements of the football department. Bruce Mathieson told the board this was a good compromise and a good idea. Then a 3 day circus of indecisive board meetings and football reviews followed. The board agreed to sack Pagan. Barry Mitchell presented to the Board for the senior coaching position before the Board back-flipped on its decision to sack Pagan and reinstated him for a further 2 years. Mitchell stayed as an assistant. Silvagni doesn't have a job. He accepts a coaching offer from then new St.Kilda coach Ross Lyon. 

So - pre-season 2015. SOS is back at Carlton. He has the board wrapped around his finger. He has complete carte-blanche over list management. He's got sign off on using Aphex but he decides he wants to tinker with it. Trigg tells SOS to be mindful that the software is to give them a better understanding of trading - something they know they'll have to do if they're to rebuild in the coming years. SOS wants to use the analytics for drafting. The favorite son wins out. No one goes against SOS. It's a battle at board level that can't be won. LoGiudice has signed off on it. Adrian Gleeson and Craig Mathieson back SOS in. The club is compromised.

It doesn't go as planned. SOS is so invested in his own version of Aphex, that he overlooks fully understanding the new points system and has instead created a convoluted list management tool. Trigg was right. Aphex is designed as a very simplistic tool to analyse and target players already in the system. The goal of "Moneyball" (and Aphex) is simply to identify value that other teams might be overlooking. Michael Agresta joins as List Manager for the 2018 season. That's SOS's exit strategy right there - and at seasons end, he should use it.


From the AFL article from 2014......

"The next step is to allow clubs to get a greater insight into under-18 competitions and sharpen their draft focus.

Ward and Deeble have produced a formula so they can match draft prospects, at the same stage of their development, with current AFL players."

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 Post subject: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:40 pm 
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Harry Vallence

Joined: Fri Dec 15, 2006 8:22 am
Posts: 1224
DocSherrin III wrote:
17th Premiership wrote:
Agree a good ruckman is our most urgent need.
I’m even cooling on the idea of going hard for an established gun mid eg Coniglio.
I’m starting to think we’d be better off getting a moneyball player like the Hawks model from 10yrs ago... Burgoyne, Gunston etc... (Yes Burgoyne is a star but at the time he wasn’t thought to have long left and went for a reasonable price rather than the godfather offer we’d need to get Coniglio).


In early 2015, SOS and Trigg met with John Deeble - known as a bit of a coaching/scouting doyen in baseball circles. John is now the Asia-Pacific Director of scouting for the LA Dodgers, but for 15 years was Asia-Pacific talent scout for the Boston Red Sox. More importantly - Deeble and Brett Ward, an Aussie also with the Red Sox, invented the Aphex Software for List Management. They were trying to capitalize on the 'Moneyball' craze which was being taken so far out of context from what it originally was that it is now more a myth that anything else. But at a local level, Aphex started to gain some momentum - and that momentum coincided with Stephen Silvagni's arrival at Carlton.

Aphex was a similar model to the one Adelaide had used a few years earlier. Stephen Trigg was well aware of it. The Crows had used their own model to prioritize their interest in Eddie Betts (18 months before he left). Deeble launched the Aphex website at the end of 2013 and pitched it directly at the AFL industry. He already had David King speak to the analytics without actually mentioning Aphex by name at the end of 2013 and by January 2014, Callum Twomey had written an article for the AFL website about Aphex as the 'new moneyball'. https://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-01-24/the-new-moneyball

In late 2014, SOS's contract comes with his own stipulations. Similar stipulations that he had in 2006*

In September 2006 - Pagan convinced SOS to come on board as a senior assistant. SOS agreed, on the proviso that he can control various elements of the football department. Bruce Mathieson told the board this was a good compromise and a good idea. Then a 3 day circus of indecisive board meetings and football reviews followed. The board agreed to sack Pagan. Barry Mitchell presented to the Board for the senior coaching position before the Board back-flipped on its decision to sack Pagan and reinstated him for a further 2 years. Mitchell stayed as an assistant. Silvagni doesn't have a job. He accepts a coaching offer from then new St.Kilda coach Ross Lyon. 

So - pre-season 2015. SOS is back at Carlton. He has the board wrapped around his finger. He has complete carte-blanche over list management. He's got sign off on using Aphex but he decides he wants to tinker with it. Trigg tells SOS to be mindful that the software is to give them a better understanding of trading - something they know they'll have to do if they're to rebuild in the coming years. SOS wants to use the analytics for drafting. The favorite son wins out. No one goes against SOS. It's a battle at board level that can't be won. LoGiudice has signed off on it. Adrian Gleeson and Craig Mathieson back SOS in. The club is compromised.

It doesn't go as planned. SOS is so invested in his own version of Aphex, that he overlooks fully understanding the new points system and has instead created a convoluted list management tool. Trigg was right. Aphex is designed as a very simplistic tool to analyse and target players already in the system. The goal of "Moneyball" (and Aphex) is simply to identify value that other teams might be overlooking. Michael Agresta joins as List Manager for the 2018 season. That's SOS's exit strategy right there - and at seasons end, he should use it.

Do we need a GM List Manager & Strategy when we have a competent List Manager and the Strategy is somewhat flawed?

The whole list rebuild 'going too young' has been known for a while. Cain Liddle has made mention of his understanding of Carlton's position while he was still at Richmond. He's being polite. Strange things are afoot at the Circle K. Something's brewing. I can feel it in me bones. Someone should book Festival Hall. Only three things are certain - LoGiudice won't fall on his sword, SOS is stubborn and Chris Judd is still trying to figure it all out.

Can't wait for the next AGM!


Wow, thanks for the insight!
I love hearing all that but it also invariably disappoints to see what’s really going on behind the curtain.


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:39 pm 
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Stephen Kernahan
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Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 2:09 pm
Posts: 15245
yibbida wrote:
From the AFL article from 2014......

"The next step is to allow clubs to get a greater insight into under-18 competitions and sharpen their draft focus.

Ward and Deeble have produced a formula so they can match draft prospects, at the same stage of their development, with current AFL players."


So you're telling me that two blokes in their 50's who had played baseball their whole lives devised a formula for footy this advanced?

I don't buy it. I don't blame them either. Not much of a market for baseball analytics out here. Baseball is the logic used for the Aphex system and due to the incremental nature of that sport these sort of systems work perfectly. A player plays over 100 games in a year, their teammates hardly factor in to when they’re pitching or batting - and producing runs, and therefore wins can be easily measured and therefore weighed up against other ballplayers across High School, Low-A, Double-A, Triple-A, Majors and associated salaries and salary caps.

Having said that ... I'm also conscious of being hypocritical as well. I personally think that SOS has done well with some drafts. 2015 is pretty good. 2016 and 2017 I'm less enamored with (save for DeKoning), but 2018 I loved the Stocker trade. Still do. If I'm grading him for draft picks - it's just a pass mark - but the trading strategy has to be classed as a fail. Then again...I really like this comment...

famousblueraincoat wrote:
We've dished out a few trade reamings of our own lately. You can't win them all. Swings and roundabouts.


I dunno...if you think too much about this stuff it'll send you to drink...damn. I think I'll have another beer. :beer:


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:09 pm 
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Alex Jesaulenko
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Location: Kaloyasena
SOS definitely flowered up his understanding of the points system and Trigg acknowledged that in person to an erstwhile poster here, it’s up to that poster if he wants to post that here again but last time he put this up, he was hounded off the site by a few here that didn’t like what he had to say.

I’ll leave it at that.

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Last edited by AGRO on Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:43 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:14 pm 
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Rod Ashman

Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2007 1:54 pm
Posts: 2096
DocSherrin III wrote:
yibbida wrote:
From the AFL article from 2014......

"The next step is to allow clubs to get a greater insight into under-18 competitions and sharpen their draft focus.

Ward and Deeble have produced a formula so they can match draft prospects, at the same stage of their development, with current AFL players."


So you're telling me that two blokes in their 50's who had played baseball their whole lives devised a formula for footy this advanced?

I don't buy it. I don't blame them either. Not much of a market for baseball analytics out here. Baseball is the logic used for the Aphex system and due to the incremental nature of that sport these sort of systems work perfectly. A player plays over 100 games in a year, their teammates hardly factor in to when they’re pitching or batting - and producing runs, and therefore wins can be easily measured and therefore weighed up against other ballplayers across High School, Low-A, Double-A, Triple-A, Majors and associated salaries and salary caps.

Having said that ... I'm also conscious of being hypocritical as well. I personally think that SOS has done well with some drafts. 2015 is pretty good. 2016 and 2017 I'm less enamored with (save for DeKoning), but 2018 I loved the Stocker trade. Still do. If I'm grading him for draft picks - it's just a pass mark - but the trading strategy has to be classed as a fail. Then again...I really like this comment...

famousblueraincoat wrote:
We've dished out a few trade reamings of our own lately. You can't win them all. Swings and roundabouts.


I dunno...if you think too much about this stuff it'll send you to drink...damn. I think I'll have another beer. :beer:


a passmark relative to what? to your opinion? give us some examples...

if you grade it relative to drafts 2014 and prior it's an A+++++++


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 Post subject: Re: List Management 2019
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:28 pm 
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Rod Ashman

Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:04 pm
Posts: 2779
Location: Bendigo
Whatever he’s achieved in the last decade or so, SOS will always be the meat head I knew as a specialist coach at the Doggies, where Rocket would openly ask, “Does anyone know what this deadshit does around here?”

Not surprised that he landed a few plum jobs by turning up with a software package and ‘certification’ for how to use it. This is a league that still references ‘basketball background’ as some sort of assurance that the kid can play footy.

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